We’re missing one final segment of the Complexity Landscape Model. The Fragile Zone is the space where a system is below the Ashby Line, above the Disintegration Line and the surrounding environment hasn’t reached Chaos. It is the Zone where the Ashby Margin (coming soon – see Systematic Innovation ezine, June issue) is negative. It is the Zone where the ability to change of the system is below the level of change likely to happen. It is the Zone where a majority of the enterprises on the planet typically find themselves. The further along the Operation Excellence road they have travelled, the further they are likely to descend into the Fragile Zone. They might have more money in the bank, but don’t know enough about how and when to invest it.

The fact that a majority of enterprises – commercial, public sector, government, NGO – find themselves in this Zone is because most leaders don’t understand complex systems. And that many of the management strategies relevant in a non-complex world no longer make sense when the world becomes complex.

The fact that they don’t all go out of business is all about the disruption pulse-rate of the domains they operate in. A mining company can afford to be fragile for 30+ years and still survive. A software company can afford to be fragile for about 30 days. Careful with that ‘connecting-the-world’ axe, Facebook.